Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Gerald Christian
Gerald Christian

Player breakdown

Gerald Christian

Louisville · 2015 Draft Class

6-3244 lbs7th round, 256th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~35
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

29%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2016BUF3021141404.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011FloridaSEC147211872
2013LouisvilleACC426401415.4100.2
2014LouisvilleACC122934831229
Career1759821813.948.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

29%

ML model output

Context Prob

29%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.03 — variable output+0.266
Efficiency consistency: 1.13 — highly consistent across seasons+0.234
Best season: 100.2 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.233

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+138 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.564
1.64 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.431
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.390

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)