Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Greg Olsen
Greg Olsen

Player breakdown

Greg Olsen

Miami (FL) · 2007 Draft Class

6-6254 lbs1st round, 31st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~41
Low700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

39%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2007CHI144663939110227.9
2008CHI167825457410.6535.9
2009CHI16151086061210.2838.3
2010CHI161370414049.9525.3
2011CAR1613894554012533.8
2012CAR16161046984312.2552.7
2013CAR16161117381611.2651
2014CAR1616123841,00812663
2015CAR1616124771,10414.3769
2016CAR1616129801,07313.4367.1
2017CAR77381719111.2127.3
2018CAR99382729110.8432.3
2019CAR1414825259711.5242.6
2020SEA118372423910121.7
Career19917012017428,68311.76043.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004MiamiACC116275117.2275
2005MiamiACC331451414.5150.3
2006MiamiACC138444111.7444
Career5851,170613.8234.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

39%

ML model output

Context Prob

39%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

114" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.628
Class YPR rank: top 22% — strong per-target efficiency+0.356
275.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.305

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+84) — improving trajectory-0.704
1.78 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.383
Speed × production: 55.4 — average combined athletic output-0.369

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)