Player breakdown
Hayden Hurst
South Carolina · 2018 Draft Class
6-4250 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~33
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
18%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | BAL | 12 | 0 | 23 | 13 | 163 | 12.5 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2019 | BAL | 16 | 4 | 39 | 30 | 349 | 11.6 | 2 | 21.8 |
| 2020 | ATL | 16 | 9 | 88 | 56 | 571 | 10.2 | 6 | 35.7 |
| 2021 | ATL | 13 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 221 | 8.5 | 3 | 17 |
| 2022 | CIN | 13 | 13 | 68 | 52 | 414 | 8 | 2 | 31.8 |
| 2023 | CAR | 9 | 8 | 32 | 18 | 184 | 10.2 | 1 | 20.4 |
| 2024 | LAC | 9 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 0 | 8.1 |
| Career | 88 | 41 | 294 | 203 | 1,975 | 9.7 | 15 | 22.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | South Carolina | SEC | 5 | 8 | 106 | 0 | 13.2 | 21.2 |
| 2016 | South Carolina | SEC | 12 | 42 | 530 | 0 | 12.6 | 44.2 |
| 2017 | South Carolina | SEC | 11 | 40 | 479 | 1 | 12 | 43.5 |
| Career | 28 | 90 | 1,115 | 1 | 12.4 | 39.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
18%
ML model output
Context Prob
18%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
120" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.633
Reception rate trend+0.262
-50.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.181
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+186 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.402
Speed × production: 55.7 — average combined athletic output-0.373
21.2 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.325