Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Heath Miller
Heath Miller

Player breakdown

Heath Miller

Virginia · 2005 Draft Class

6-5256 lbs1st round, 30th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

82%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2005PIT1615523945911.8628.7
2006PIT1616553439311.6524.6
2007PIT1616614756612735.4
2008PIT1414664851410.7336.7
2009PIT1616987678910.4649.3
2010PIT1414674251212.2236.6
2011PIT1616745163112.4239.4
2012PIT15151017181611.5854.4
2013PIT1414795859310.2142.4
2014PIT1616916676111.5347.6
2015PIT151581605358.9235.7
Career1681678255926,56911.14539.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004VirginiaACC436475513.2118.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

82%

ML model output

Context Prob

82%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

118.8 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.358
Best season: 118.8 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.290
118.8 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate+0.243

Top Negative Factors

Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.375
Class YPR rank: top 44% — average per-target efficiency-0.337
BMI 30.4 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (256 lbs)-0.251

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)