Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Hunter Long
Hunter Long

Player breakdown

Hunter Long

Boston Col. · 2021 Draft Class

3rd round, 81st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021MIA72318801.1
2024LAR17297608.603.5
2025JAX931712857.129.4
Career33729201537.724.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2018Boston CollegeACC44103025.825.8
2019Boston CollegeACC1026462017.846.2
2020Boston CollegeACC1050592311.859.2
Career24801,157314.548.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

43%

ML model output

Context Prob

43%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.273
Efficiency consistency: 1.78 — highly consistent across seasons+0.264
Strong ascending production slope (+244 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.195

Top Negative Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.454
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.394
25.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.257

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)