Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jace Amaro
Jace Amaro

Player breakdown

Jace Amaro

Texas Tech · 2014 Draft Class

6-5265 lbs2nd round, 49th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~34
EliteAll-American x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

80%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014NYJ14453383459.1224.6
2016TEN30435919.7019.7
Career17457414049.9223.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011Texas TechBig 12275728.128.5
2012Texas TechBig 12325409416.4136.3
2013Texas TechBig 125981,240712.7248
Career101301,7061313.1170.6

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

80%

ML model output

Context Prob

80%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,488 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.654
118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.582
4.68 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.380

Top Negative Factors

28.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.330
Speed × production: 130.2 — elite combined athletic output-0.312
Best season: 248.0 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling-0.289

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)