Player breakdown
Jace Sternberger
Texas A&M · 2019 Draft Class
6-4251 lbs3rd round, 75th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~30
EliteAll-American x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | GNB | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | GNB | 12 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 114 | 9.5 | 1 | 9.5 |
| Career | 18 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 114 | 9.5 | 1 | 6.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Kansas | Big 12 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 2018 | Texas A&M | SEC | 12 | 46 | 789 | 9 | 17.2 | 65.8 |
| Career | 13 | 47 | 794 | 9 | 16.9 | 61.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
75%
ML model output
Context Prob
75%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,052 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.648
113" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.516
3.14 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.399
Top Negative Factors
65.8 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.460
Speed × production: 77.8 — strong combined athletic output-0.323
BMI 30.6 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (251 lbs)-0.250