Player breakdown
Jack Velling
Michigan State · 2026 Draft Class
6-5245 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
37%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 8 | 14 | 260 | 0 | 18.6 | 32.5 |
| 2023 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 11 | 27 | 384 | 1 | 14.2 | 34.9 |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 36 | 411 | 1 | 11.4 | 34.2 |
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 11 | 35 | 350 | 2 | 10 | 31.8 |
| Career | 42 | 112 | 1,405 | 4 | 12.5 | 33.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
37%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.02 — variable output+0.265
-57.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.181
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.179
Top Negative Factors
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.414
1.68 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.371
Class YPR rank: top 61% — average per-target efficiency-0.342