Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jake Butt
Jake Butt

Player breakdown

Jake Butt

Michigan · 2017 Draft Class

6-5246 lbs5th round, 145th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

78%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2018DEN331388510.6028.3
2020DEN514252.501
Career841710909.0011.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013MichiganBig Ten217202211.9101
2014MichiganBig Ten92121101023.4
2015MichiganBig Ten1247599012.749.9
2016MichiganBig Ten1041496212.149.6
Career331261,508412.045.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

21%

ML model output

Context Prob

21%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

798 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.599
2.43 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.384
Best season: 101.0 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.251

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+98) — improving trajectory-0.654
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.422
Class YPR rank: top 67% — average per-target efficiency-0.362

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)