Player breakdown
Jake Ferguson
Wisconsin · 2022 Draft Class
6-5250 lbs4th round, 129th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
65%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DAL | 16 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 174 | 9.2 | 2 | 10.9 |
| 2023 | DAL | 17 | 16 | 102 | 71 | 761 | 10.7 | 5 | 44.8 |
| 2024 | DAL | 14 | 14 | 86 | 59 | 494 | 8.4 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2025 | DAL | 17 | 10 | 102 | 82 | 600 | 7.3 | 8 | 35.3 |
| Career | 64 | 48 | 312 | 231 | 2,029 | 8.8 | 15 | 31.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 11 | 31 | 412 | 0 | 13.3 | 37.5 |
| 2019 | South Florida | American Athletic | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2019 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 13 | 28 | 354 | 0 | 12.6 | 27.2 |
| 2020 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 5 | 22 | 208 | 1 | 9.5 | 41.6 |
| 2021 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 11 | 38 | 395 | 1 | 10.4 | 35.9 |
| Career | 41 | 120 | 1,376 | 2 | 11.5 | 33.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
62%
ML model output
Context Prob
62%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.654
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.244
Reception rate trend+0.242
Top Negative Factors
37.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.442
1.65 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.356
Class YPR rank: top 76% — average per-target efficiency-0.309