Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jake O'Connell
Jake O'Connell

Player breakdown

Jake O'Connell

Miami (OH) · 2009 Draft Class

6-4220 lbs7th round, 237th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

10%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009KAN4210273.501.8
2010KAN152433110.302.1
2011KAN84127527.406.5
2012KAN803318602.3
Career35829151087.203.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2006Miami (OH)Mid-American274326.121.5
2007Miami (OH)Mid-American214152210.976
2008Miami (OH)Mid-American025258010.30
Career44645349.8113.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

10%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.233
YPG ranked at 27th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.189
6.1 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.157

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+107 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.699
86 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.523
1.17 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.459

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)