Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Casey
James Casey

Player breakdown

James Casey

Rice · 2009 Draft Class

5th round, 152nd overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~41
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

35%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009HOU1501266410.704.3
2010HOU1641489812.306.1
2013PHI151633110.302.1
2014PHI162335919.723.7
Career627352025212.624.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007RiceAmerican Athletic046585412.70
2008RiceAmerican Athletic01041,2171211.70
Career01501,8021612.00.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

35%

ML model output

Context Prob

35%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

585.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.232
YPG ranked at 0th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.200
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.174

Top Negative Factors

405 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.532
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.430
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.416

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)