Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Mitchell
James Mitchell

Player breakdown

James Mitchell

Virginia Tech · 2022 Draft Class

6-4249 lbs5th round, 177th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

26%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2022DET140111111310.318.1
2023DET15122281401.9
2025CAR5033289.305.6
Career341161616910.615.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2019Virginia TechACC818325018.140.6
2020Virginia TechACC926435016.748.3
2021Virginia TechACC133601236
Career1847796016.944.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

26%

ML model output

Context Prob

26%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Class YPR rank: top 6% — elite per-target efficiency+0.387
Reception rate trend+0.258
-46.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.178

Top Negative Factors

40.6 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.425
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.377
1.75 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.371

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)