Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jared Wiley
Jared Wiley

Player breakdown

Jared Wiley

TCU · 2024 Draft Class

6-6249 lbs4th round, 131st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

44%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2024KAN72117701
2025KAN50114400.8
Career12222115.500.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2019TexasBig 12111501515
2020TexasBig 1269166018.427.7
2021TexasBig 12464106.810.2
2022TCUBig 12820219010.927.4
2023TCUBig 121246521611.343.4
Career3182962611.731.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.600
Reception rate trend+0.250
-53.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.181

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+126 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.572
Speed × production: 57.0 — average combined athletic output-0.376
27.4 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.331

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)