Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jason Pociask
Jason Pociask

Player breakdown

Jason Pociask

Wisconsin · 2006 Draft Class

6-3266 lbs5th round, 150th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

25%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2007NYJ40117701.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004WisconsinBig Ten04600150
2005WisconsinBig Ten0779011.30
Career011139012.60.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

25%

ML model output

Context Prob

25%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.622
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.07 — variable output+0.254
Efficiency consistency: 1.19 — highly consistent across seasons+0.242

Top Negative Factors

60.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.470
105 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.420
0.30 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.367

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)