Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jeff King
Jeff King

Player breakdown

Jeff King

Virginia Tech · 2006 Draft Class

6-5245 lbs5th round, 155th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

40%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2006CAR120411110.1
2007CAR161680464068.8225.4
2008CAR161534211959.3112.2
2009CAR161533252008312.5
2010CAR161632191216.427.6
2011ARI1610342727110316.9
2012ARI161229171297.608.1
Career108842461561,3238.51212.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004Virginia TechACC022292413.30
2005Virginia TechACC123265511.5265
Career145557912.4557.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

40%

ML model output

Context Prob

40%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

109" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.581
292.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.284
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.05 — variable output+0.232

Top Negative Factors

350 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.399
Class YPR rank: top 67% — average per-target efficiency-0.322
1.19 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.320

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)