Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jermichael Finley
Jermichael Finley

Player breakdown

Jermichael Finley

Texas · 2008 Draft Class

6-4243 lbs3rd round, 91st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

88%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2008GNB1411267412.315.3
2009GNB1310725567612.3552
2010GNB55262130114.3160.2
2011GNB1613925576713.9847.9
2012GNB1614876166710.9241.7
2013GNB65342530012350
Career70483232232,78512.52039.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2006TexasSEC323326314.2108.7
2007TexasSEC243563213.1281.5
Career566889513.5177.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

88%

ML model output

Context Prob

88%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

117" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.625
750 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.606
108.7 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.357

Top Negative Factors

Best season: 281.5 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling-0.288
281.5 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate-0.255
BMI 29.6 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (243 lbs)-0.233

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)