Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jesse James
Jesse James

Player breakdown

Jesse James

Penn St. · 2015 Draft Class

6-7261 lbs5th round, 160th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

50%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2015PIT8211856717
2016PIT161360393388.7321.1
2017PIT161463433728.7323.3
2018PIT167393042314.1226.4
2019DET161127161428.908.9
2020DET16722141299.228.1
2021CHI14987628.914.4
Career102632301571,5229.71214.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2012Penn StateBig Ten515276518.455.2
2013Penn StateBig Ten325333313.3111
2014Penn StateBig Ten1235369310.530.8
Career20759781113.048.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

50%

ML model output

Context Prob

50%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

121" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.576
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.02 — variable output+0.257
Best season: 111.0 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.250

Top Negative Factors

55.2 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.469
1.41 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.389
Class YPR rank: top 60% — average per-target efficiency-0.313

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)