Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jim Dray
Jim Dray

Player breakdown

Jim Dray

Stanford · 2010 Draft Class

6-5246 lbs7th round, 233rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2010ARI163934715.702.9
2011ARI100522512.502.5
2012ARI13022157.501.2
2013ARI161532262158.3213.4
2014CLE168271724214.2115.1
2015CLE16101666110.203.8
Career8736915660510.837.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2006StanfordACC11917819.4178
2007StanfordACC19116112.9116
2008StanfordACC2212266
2009StanfordACC411149313.537.2
Career841455711.156.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

178.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.277
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.263
YPG ranked at 8th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.190

Top Negative Factors

213 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.412
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.375
0.72 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.336

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)