Player breakdown
Joel Dreessen
Colorado St. · 2005 Draft Class
6-4260 lbs6th round, 198th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
69%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | NYJ | 14 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 2007 | HOU | 13 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 2 | 4.2 |
| 2008 | HOU | 16 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 77 | 7 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2009 | HOU | 16 | 11 | 39 | 26 | 320 | 12.3 | 1 | 20 |
| 2010 | HOU | 16 | 10 | 55 | 36 | 518 | 14.4 | 4 | 32.4 |
| 2011 | HOU | 16 | 10 | 39 | 28 | 353 | 12.6 | 6 | 22.1 |
| 2012 | DEN | 16 | 15 | 58 | 41 | 356 | 8.7 | 5 | 22.3 |
| 2013 | DEN | 13 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 1 | 3.6 |
| Career | 120 | 49 | 233 | 158 | 1,767 | 11.2 | 19 | 14.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 3 | 43 | 427 | 3 | 9.9 | 142.3 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
69%
ML model output
Context Prob
69%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
113" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.654
142.3 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.291
Speed × production: 44.7 — average combined athletic output+0.203
Top Negative Factors
370 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.402
1.64 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.350
Class YPR rank: top 89% — average per-target efficiency-0.309