Player breakdown
John Bates
Boise St. · 2021 Draft Class
6-5250 lbs4th round, 124th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
64%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | WAS | 17 | 8 | 25 | 20 | 249 | 12.5 | 1 | 14.6 |
| 2022 | WAS | 16 | 7 | 22 | 14 | 108 | 7.7 | 1 | 6.8 |
| 2023 | WAS | 17 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 151 | 7.9 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 2024 | WAS | 17 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 84 | 10.5 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | WAS | 15 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 1 | 6.9 |
| Career | 82 | 36 | 104 | 72 | 695 | 9.7 | 3 | 8.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Boise State | Mountain West | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 11.3 | 17 |
| 2018 | Boise State | Mountain West | 6 | 10 | 155 | 0 | 15.5 | 25.8 |
| 2019 | Boise State | Mountain West | 10 | 21 | 253 | 1 | 12 | 25.3 |
| 2020 | Boise State | Mountain West | 3 | 12 | 117 | 0 | 9.8 | 39 |
| Career | 21 | 46 | 559 | 1 | 12.2 | 26.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
64%
ML model output
Context Prob
64%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
120" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.621
Reception rate trend+0.278
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.234
Top Negative Factors
219 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.430
1.01 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.386
Class YPR rank: top 60% — average per-target efficiency-0.317