Player breakdown
John Carlson
Notre Dame · 2008 Draft Class
6-5251 lbs2nd round, 38th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~42
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | SEA | 16 | 9 | 80 | 55 | 627 | 11.4 | 5 | 39.2 |
| 2009 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 83 | 51 | 574 | 11.3 | 7 | 35.9 |
| 2010 | SEA | 15 | 13 | 58 | 31 | 318 | 10.3 | 1 | 21.2 |
| 2012 | MIN | 14 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2013 | MIN | 13 | 8 | 48 | 32 | 344 | 10.8 | 1 | 26.5 |
| Career | 74 | 52 | 283 | 177 | 1,906 | 10.8 | 14 | 25.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 0 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 5.2 | 0 |
| 2005 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 0 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 2006 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 4 | 46 | 621 | 4 | 13.5 | 155.2 |
| 2007 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 3 | 40 | 372 | 3 | 9.3 | 124 |
| Career | 7 | 99 | 1,080 | 8 | 10.9 | 154.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
9%
ML model output
Context Prob
9%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
113" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.589
2.47 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.364
YPG ranked at 29th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.189
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+113 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.680
207 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.526
Class YPR rank: top 73% — average per-target efficiency-0.319