Predicting the Pros
Predictions/John Phillips
John Phillips

Player breakdown

John Phillips

Virginia · 2009 Draft Class

6-5251 lbs6th round, 208th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

9%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009DAL16497628.903.9
2011DAL16718151016.716.3
2012DAL169108556.913.4
2013SDG15664307.502
2014SDG161111110.1
2015SDG1651110696.914.3
20162TM1671510727.214.5
2016DEN838540815
2016NOR8475326.404
2018ARI84333812.704.8
Career1355088685007.463.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005VirginiaACC1227113.527
2006VirginiaACC0265032.50
2007VirginiaACC217193211.496.5
2008VirginiaACC24838528192.5
Career56967059.7134.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

9%

ML model output

Context Prob

9%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

112" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.617
Reception rate trend+0.268
Efficiency consistency: 1.39 — highly consistent across seasons+0.237

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+119 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.604
1.53 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.420
462 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.375

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)