Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jordan Reed
Jordan Reed

Player breakdown

Jordan Reed

Florida · 2013 Draft Class

6-2236 lbs3rd round, 85th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
High700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

74%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2013WAS94594549911.1355.4
2014WAS11265504659.3042.3
2015WAS1481148795210.91168
2016WAS128896668610.4657.2
2017WAS6535272117.8235.2
2018WAS138845455810.3242.9
2020SFO10146262318.9423.1
Career75364923553,60210.12848.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2010FloridaSEC5679113.215.8
2011FloridaSEC228307211153.5
2012FloridaSEC045559312.40
Career779945612.0135.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

74%

ML model output

Context Prob

74%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

745 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.557
2.37 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.433
Strong ascending production slope (+240 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.346

Top Negative Factors

Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.402
Class YPR rank: top 75% — average per-target efficiency-0.331
Reception rate trend-0.315

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)