Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jordan Thomas
Jordan Thomas

Player breakdown

Jordan Thomas

Mississippi St. · 2018 Draft Class

6-5265 lbs6th round, 211th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

22%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2018HOU1610272021510.8413.4
2019HOU52318801.6
20202TM60213310.5
2020ARI40113310.8
2020NWE20100000
Career3312342322910.066.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016Mississippi StateSEC694805.38
2017Mississippi StateSEC918193010.721.4
Career152724108.916.1

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

22%

ML model output

Context Prob

22%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

111" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.603
Reception rate trend+0.251
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.232

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+145 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.544
257 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.505
0.73 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.427

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)