Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Josiah Deguara
Josiah Deguara

Player breakdown

Josiah Deguara

Cincinnati · 2020 Draft Class

6-2242 lbs3rd round, 94th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

36%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2020GNB2121121206
2021GNB16233252459.8215.3
2022GNB17315131148.806.7
2023GNB15488658.104.3
2024JAX15033144.700.9
2025ARI1225321711.8
Career771266534718.936.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016CincinnatiAmerican Athletic3447011.815.7
2017CincinnatiAmerican Athletic5119808.919.6
2018CincinnatiAmerican Athletic1133431313.139.2
2019CincinnatiAmerican Athletic1235476613.639.7
Career31831,052912.733.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

36%

ML model output

Context Prob

36%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.596
Reception rate trend+0.278
Speed × production: 46.4 — average combined athletic output+0.191

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+143 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.553
158 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.530
15.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)