Player breakdown
Justin Joly
NC State · 2026 Draft Class
6-4241 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
37%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | UConn | FBS Independents | 6 | 16 | 198 | 0 | 12.4 | 33 |
| 2023 | UConn | FBS Independents | 11 | 54 | 551 | 0 | 10.2 | 50.1 |
| 2024 | NC State | ACC | 12 | 36 | 517 | 2 | 14.4 | 43.1 |
| 2025 | NC State | ACC | 12 | 47 | 476 | 3 | 10.1 | 39.7 |
| Career | 41 | 153 | 1,742 | 5 | 11.4 | 42.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
37%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.03 — variable output+0.265
Reception rate trend+0.253
Efficiency consistency: 1.20 — highly consistent across seasons+0.240
Top Negative Factors
Positive production trend (+92) — improving trajectory-0.711
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.420
43.1 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.408