Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kaden Smith
Kaden Smith

Player breakdown

Kaden Smith

Stanford · 2019 Draft Class

6-5255 lbs6th round, 176th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

54%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2019NYG9642312688.6329.8
2020NYG151221181126.207.5
2021NYG9433331103.7
Career332266524137.9312.5
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2017StanfordPac-121020356017.835.6
2018StanfordPac-12947635013.570.6
Career1967991014.852.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

54%

ML model output

Context Prob

54%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

108" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.586
2.49 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.374
Reception rate trend+0.253

Top Negative Factors

Speed × production: 55.3 — average combined athletic output-0.356
35.6 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.308
BMI 30.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (255 lbs)-0.235

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)