Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kellen Davis
Kellen Davis

Player breakdown

Kellen Davis

Michigan St. · 2008 Draft Class

6-6262 lbs5th round, 158th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~40
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009CHI162149758.334.7
2010CHI16321191911.2
2011CHI1615351820611.4512.9
2012CHI1615441922912.1214.3
2013SEA154433210.712.1
2014DET60300000
2015NYJ16911318611.1
2016NYJ87100000
Career109551145357910.9135.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004Michigan StateBig Ten01290290
2005Michigan StateBig Ten31512228.140.7
2006Michigan StateBig Ten112125110.4125
2007Michigan StateBig Ten428475517118.8
Career856751813.493.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

12%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.514
Class YPR rank: top 27% — strong per-target efficiency+0.343
Efficiency consistency: 2.16 — highly consistent across seasons+0.244

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+148 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.591
1.81 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.446
Speed × production: 56.1 — average combined athletic output-0.355

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)