Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kennard Backman
Kennard Backman

Player breakdown

Kennard Backman

Ala-Birmingham · 2015 Draft Class

6th round, 213th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

5%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011UABAmerican Athletic064307.20
2012UABAmerican Athletic323235410.278.3
2013UABAmerican Athletic028302210.80
2014UABConference USA1137390310.535.5
Career1494970910.369.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

5%

ML model output

Context Prob

5%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.154
Catch radius: 0.0 — limited physical reach envelope+0.152
7.2 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.151

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+115 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.718
130 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.521
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.459

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)