Player breakdown
Kyle Pitts
Florida · 2021 Draft Class
6-5245 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 20Age: ~25
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1All-Conference x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
94%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ATL | 17 | 15 | 110 | 68 | 1,026 | 15.1 | 1 | 60.4 |
| 2022 | ATL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 28 | 356 | 12.7 | 2 | 35.6 |
| 2023 | ATL | 17 | 15 | 90 | 53 | 667 | 12.6 | 3 | 39.2 |
| 2024 | ATL | 17 | 15 | 74 | 47 | 602 | 12.8 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2025 | ATL | 17 | 17 | 118 | 88 | 928 | 10.5 | 5 | 54.6 |
| Career | 78 | 72 | 451 | 284 | 3,579 | 12.6 | 15 | 45.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Florida | SEC | 3 | 3 | 73 | 0 | 24.3 | 24.3 |
| 2019 | Florida | SEC | 12 | 50 | 595 | 0 | 11.9 | 49.6 |
| 2020 | Florida | SEC | 7 | 38 | 664 | 0 | 17.5 | 94.9 |
| Career | 22 | 91 | 1,332 | 0 | 14.6 | 60.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
91%
ML model output
Context Prob
91%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
885 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.642
129" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.557
2.71 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.413
Top Negative Factors
24.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.342
Speed × production: 83.7 — strong combined athletic output-0.321
BMI 29.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (245 lbs)-0.250