Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kylen Granson
Kylen Granson

Player breakdown

Kylen Granson

SMU · 2021 Draft Class

4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021IND17015111069.606.2
2022IND13440313029.7023.2
2023IND157503036812.3124.5
2024IND176311418213010.7
2025PHI17397405.702.4
Career79201459399810.7112.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016RiceConference USA732362011.351.7
2017RiceConference USA618241013.440.2
2019SMUAmerican Athletic1135618017.756.2
2020SMUAmerican Athletic1035536015.353.6
Career341201,757014.651.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

19%

ML model output

Context Prob

19%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Class YPR rank: top 10% — elite per-target efficiency+0.401
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.02 — variable output+0.245
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.183

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+58) — improving trajectory-0.681
206 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.512
56.2 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.425

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)