Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Lee Smith
Lee Smith

Player breakdown

Lee Smith

Marshall · 2011 Draft Class

6-6266 lbs5th round, 159th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

9%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2011BUF10344112.801.1
2013BUF1614957815.604.9
2014BUF14108742613
2015OAK15151312705.814.7
2016OAK4466294.807.3
2017OAK169118769.504.8
2018OAK1641110737.334.6
2020BUF10264358.823.5
2021ATL166119657.214.1
Career1176779654797.484.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007MarshallSun Belt02904.50
2008MarshallSun Belt0128907.40
2009MarshallSun Belt023335014.60
2010MarshallSun Belt03835839.40
Career075791310.50.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

9%

ML model output

Context Prob

9%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

108" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.608
YPG ranked at 0th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.185
Speed × production: 32.0 — average combined athletic output+0.183

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+116 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.620
238 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.523
1.35 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.443

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)