Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Luke Farrell
Luke Farrell

Player breakdown

Luke Farrell

Ohio St. · 2021 Draft Class

6-5251 lbs5th round, 145th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

57%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021JAX15411756803.7
2022JAX17044401002.4
2023JAX178151315511.909.1
2024JAX1781712675.603.9
2025SFO1741411857.725
Career832461474038.624.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2017Ohio StateBig Ten221909.59.5
2018Ohio StateBig Ten819196110.324.5
2019Ohio StateBig Ten5610821821.6
2020Ohio StateBig Ten332608.78.7
Career1830349311.619.4

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

57%

ML model output

Context Prob

57%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.591
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.256
Positive production trend (+2) — improving trajectory+0.195

Top Negative Factors

261 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.421
0.78 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.386
9.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.332

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)