Player breakdown
Luke Musgrave
Oregon St. · 2023 Draft Class
6-6253 lbs2nd round, 42nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
55%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | GNB | 11 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 352 | 10.4 | 1 | 32 |
| 2024 | GNB | 7 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | GNB | 17 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 252 | 10.5 | 0 | 14.8 |
| Career | 35 | 22 | 87 | 65 | 649 | 10.0 | 1 | 18.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 2020 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 5 | 10 | 113 | 0 | 11.3 | 22.6 |
| 2021 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 8 | 18 | 244 | 0 | 13.6 | 30.5 |
| 2022 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 2 | 11 | 169 | 0 | 15.4 | 84.5 |
| Career | 16 | 41 | 544 | 0 | 13.3 | 34.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
55%
ML model output
Context Prob
55%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
125" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.551
Class YPR rank: top 27% — strong per-target efficiency+0.347
Reception rate trend+0.278
Top Negative Factors
276 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.467
0.96 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.405
18.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.340