Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Luke Schoonmaker
Luke Schoonmaker

Player breakdown

Luke Schoonmaker

Michigan · 2023 Draft Class

6-5251 lbs2nd round, 58th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~27
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

24%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2023DAL170158658.123.8
2024DAL17636272418.9114.2
2025DAL17723141329.407.8
Career511374494388.938.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2019MichiganBig Ten225402727
2021MichiganBig Ten91716539.718.3
2022MichiganBig Ten1034386311.438.6
Career2153605611.428.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

24%

ML model output

Context Prob

24%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

127" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.546
Reception rate trend+0.258
Efficiency consistency: 2.37 — highly consistent across seasons+0.242

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+166 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.544
1.54 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.451
514 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.365

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)