Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Luke Stocker
Luke Stocker

Player breakdown

Luke Stocker

Tennessee · 2011 Draft Class

6-5258 lbs4th round, 104th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

11%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2012TAM1611271616510.3110.3
2015TAM1413139616.814.4
2016TAM121085234.601.9
20172TM12654307.512.5
2017TAM943318612
2017TEN3221121204
2018TEN1611211516511210.3
2019ATL159148536.603.5
2020ATL161311763903.9
2021MIN1202212601
Career12579106706028.664.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007TennesseeSEC141112.811
2008TennesseeSEC013139010.70
2009TennesseeSEC429389513.497.2
2010TennesseeSEC134359110.6359
Career680898711.2149.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

11%

ML model output

Context Prob

11%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.600
Reception rate trend+0.264
Speed × production: 41.8 — average combined athletic output+0.194

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+116 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.720
1.51 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.417
11.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.344

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)