Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Luke Willson
Luke Willson

Player breakdown

Luke Willson

Rice · 2013 Draft Class

5th round, 158th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

40%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2013SEA167282027213.6117
2014SEA1510402236216.5324.1
2015SEA147261721312.5115.2
2016SEA11621151298.6211.7
2017SEA167221515310.249.6
2018DET1481913876.706.2
2019SEA87108799.909.9
2020BAL3031121204
Career97521691111,30711.81113.5
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009RiceAmerican Athletic17122117.4122
2010RiceAmerican Athletic333425312.9141.7
2011RiceAmerican Athletic329313310.8104.3
2012RiceAmerican Athletic2912621463
Career978986912.6109.6

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

40%

ML model output

Context Prob

40%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

122.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.303
Efficiency consistency: 1.38 — highly consistent across seasons+0.265
YPG ranked at 20th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.202

Top Negative Factors

141 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.432
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.396
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.385

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)