Player breakdown
Luke Willson
Rice · 2013 Draft Class
5th round, 158th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
40%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | SEA | 16 | 7 | 28 | 20 | 272 | 13.6 | 1 | 17 |
| 2014 | SEA | 15 | 10 | 40 | 22 | 362 | 16.5 | 3 | 24.1 |
| 2015 | SEA | 14 | 7 | 26 | 17 | 213 | 12.5 | 1 | 15.2 |
| 2016 | SEA | 11 | 6 | 21 | 15 | 129 | 8.6 | 2 | 11.7 |
| 2017 | SEA | 16 | 7 | 22 | 15 | 153 | 10.2 | 4 | 9.6 |
| 2018 | DET | 14 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 87 | 6.7 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2019 | SEA | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2020 | BAL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| Career | 97 | 52 | 169 | 111 | 1,307 | 11.8 | 11 | 13.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Rice | American Athletic | 1 | 7 | 122 | 1 | 17.4 | 122 |
| 2010 | Rice | American Athletic | 3 | 33 | 425 | 3 | 12.9 | 141.7 |
| 2011 | Rice | American Athletic | 3 | 29 | 313 | 3 | 10.8 | 104.3 |
| 2012 | Rice | American Athletic | 2 | 9 | 126 | 2 | 14 | 63 |
| Career | 9 | 78 | 986 | 9 | 12.6 | 109.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
40%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
122.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.303
Efficiency consistency: 1.38 — highly consistent across seasons+0.265
YPG ranked at 20th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.202
Top Negative Factors
141 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.432
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.396
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.385