Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Malcolm Johnson
Malcolm Johnson

Player breakdown

Malcolm Johnson

Mississippi St. · 2015 Draft Class

6-0149 lbs6th round, 195th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

10%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2016CLE7175448.806.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011Mississippi StateSEC010169316.90
2012Mississippi StateSEC110171217.1171
2013Mississippi StateSEC129378113378
2014Mississippi StateSEC1125358314.332.5
Career13741,076914.582.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

10%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Class YPR rank: top 27% — strong per-target efficiency+0.386
169.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.248
Efficiency consistency: 1.16 — highly consistent across seasons+0.244

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+63) — improving trajectory-0.740
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.405
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.378

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)