Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Marcedes Lewis
Marcedes Lewis

Player breakdown

Marcedes Lewis

UCLA · 2006 Draft Class

6-6261 lbs1st round, 28th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~42
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2006JAX15321131269.718.4
2007JAX1616573739110.6224.4
2008JAX1616744148911.9230.6
2009JAX1515593251816.2234.5
2010JAX1616895870012.11043.8
2011JAX1515853946011.8030.7
2012JAX1615775254010.4433.8
2013JAX1111472535914.4432.6
2014JAX88311820611.4225.8
2015JAX1616371622614.1014.1
2016JAX101030201698.5116.9
2017JAX1616482431813.3519.9
2018GNB16443391302.4
2019GNB1611191515610.419.8
2020GNB1515171010710.737.1
2021GNB171728232149.3012.6
2022GNB171776661123.9
2023CHI17454297.311.7
2024CHI174212200.1
Career2852297374375,11511.74017.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004UCLABig Ten53036171272.2
2005UCLABig Ten6587411012.8123.5
Career11881,1021712.5100.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

92%

ML model output

Context Prob

92%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

988 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.632
118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.564
2.84 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.376

Top Negative Factors

72.2 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.465
Speed × production: 72.9 — strong combined athletic output-0.322
Class YPR rank: top 47% — average per-target efficiency-0.315

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)