Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mason Schreck
Mason Schreck

Player breakdown

Mason Schreck

Buffalo · 2017 Draft Class

7th round, 251st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

9%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2020CIN141100000
2022HOU31226302
Career1723263.000.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013BuffaloMid-American21612627.963
2014BuffaloMid-American610106010.617.7
2015BuffaloMid-American818190010.623.8
2016BuffaloMid-American125965141154.2
Career281031,073610.438.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

9%

ML model output

Context Prob

9%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.162
7.9 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.156
Vertical jump not recorded at combine+0.149

Top Negative Factors

217 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.519
Strong ascending production slope (+175 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.494
63.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.428

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)