Player breakdown
Matt Lauter
Boise State · 2026 Draft Class
6-3240 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
HighAll-Conference x1
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Boise State | Mountain West | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2023 | Boise State | Mountain West | 5 | 8 | 155 | 0 | 19.4 | 31 |
| 2024 | Boise State | Mountain West | 13 | 44 | 533 | 6 | 12.1 | 41 |
| 2025 | Boise State | Mountain West | 12 | 35 | 316 | 1 | 9 | 26.3 |
| Career | 32 | 91 | 1,044 | 7 | 11.5 | 32.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
22%
ML model output
Context Prob
22%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Reception rate trend+0.267
-57.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.181
10.0 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.172
Top Negative Factors
Positive production trend (+92) — improving trajectory-0.707
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.385
461 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.384