Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matt Sherry
Matt Sherry

Player breakdown

Matt Sherry

Villanova · 2008 Draft Class

6th round, 207th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~41
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

13%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005VillanovaCAA225275311137.5
2006VillanovaCAA219249113.1124.5
2007VillanovaCAA037461512.50
Career481985912.2246.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

13%

ML model output

Context Prob

13%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

137.5 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.239
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.223
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.172

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+93) — improving trajectory-0.730
153 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.521
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.420

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)