Player breakdown
Matt Spaeth
Minnesota · 2007 Draft Class
6-7270 lbs3rd round, 77th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
HighJohn Mackey x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
72%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | PIT | 14 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 3 | 2.4 |
| 2008 | PIT | 16 | 13 | 26 | 17 | 136 | 8 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2009 | PIT | 16 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1.6 |
| 2010 | PIT | 14 | 13 | 18 | 9 | 80 | 8.9 | 1 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | CHI | 15 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 2 | 3.3 |
| 2012 | CHI | 16 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 | 1.8 |
| 2013 | PIT | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 2.8 |
| 2014 | PIT | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 1 | 3.1 |
| 2015 | PIT | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Career | 123 | 72 | 87 | 55 | 420 | 7.6 | 10 | 3.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 2 | 24 | 298 | 4 | 12.4 | 149 |
| 2005 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 4 | 24 | 308 | 4 | 12.8 | 77 |
| 2006 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 4 | 47 | 564 | 4 | 12 | 141 |
| Career | 10 | 95 | 1,170 | 12 | 12.3 | 117.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
26%
ML model output
Context Prob
26%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
752 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.564
149.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.287
Catch radius: 0.0 — limited physical reach envelope+0.152
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+133 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.529
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.384
Speed × production: 56.0 — average combined athletic output-0.366