Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Mayer
Michael Mayer

Player breakdown

Michael Mayer

Notre Dame · 2023 Draft Class

6-5249 lbs2nd round, 35th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

38%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2023LVR1412402730411.3221.7
2024LVR11832211567.4014.2
2025LVR131250353289.4125.2
Career3832122837889.5320.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2020Notre DameFBS Independents1029323011.132.3
2021Notre DameFBS Independents1161740012.167.3
2022Notre DameFBS Independents1261687411.357.2
Career331511,750411.653.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

38%

ML model output

Context Prob

38%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.603
2.97 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
Reception rate trend+0.250

Top Negative Factors

246 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.520
Strong ascending production slope (+182 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.460
32.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.320

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)