Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Roberts
Michael Roberts

Player breakdown

Michael Roberts

Toledo · 2017 Draft Class

6-4270 lbs4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

22%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2017DET153744611.503.1
2018DET8220910011.1312.5
Career235271314611.236.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2014ToledoMid-American2465016.232.5
2015ToledoMid-American91817309.619.2
2016ToledoMid-American1136402011.236.5
Career2258640011.029.1

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

22%

ML model output

Context Prob

22%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

110" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.585
Efficiency consistency: 1.47 — highly consistent across seasons+0.242
Reception rate trend+0.242

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+168 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.524
134 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.521
1.49 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.451

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)