Player breakdown
Michael Roberts
Toledo · 2017 Draft Class
6-4270 lbs4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
22%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | DET | 15 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2018 | DET | 8 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 100 | 11.1 | 3 | 12.5 |
| Career | 23 | 5 | 27 | 13 | 146 | 11.2 | 3 | 6.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Toledo | Mid-American | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 16.2 | 32.5 |
| 2015 | Toledo | Mid-American | 9 | 18 | 173 | 0 | 9.6 | 19.2 |
| 2016 | Toledo | Mid-American | 11 | 36 | 402 | 0 | 11.2 | 36.5 |
| Career | 22 | 58 | 640 | 0 | 11.0 | 29.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
22%
ML model output
Context Prob
22%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
110" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.585
Efficiency consistency: 1.47 — highly consistent across seasons+0.242
Reception rate trend+0.242
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+168 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.524
134 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.521
1.49 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.451