Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Williams
Michael Williams

Player breakdown

Michael Williams

Alabama · 2013 Draft Class

6-0150 lbs7th round, 211th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2015NWE15963268.701.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009AlabamaSEC032909.70
2010AlabamaSEC0797113.90
2011AlabamaSEC014181212.90
2012AlabamaSEC32418347.661
Career348490710.2163.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.228
2.33 TDs/game — dominant red-zone role in college+0.172
9.7 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.152

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+51) — improving trajectory-0.710
244 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.523
1.22 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.456

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)