Player breakdown
Mike Gesicki
Penn St. · 2018 Draft Class
6-5247 lbs2nd round, 42nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
77%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | MIA | 16 | 7 | 32 | 22 | 202 | 9.2 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2019 | MIA | 16 | 5 | 89 | 51 | 570 | 11.2 | 5 | 35.6 |
| 2020 | MIA | 15 | 9 | 85 | 53 | 703 | 13.3 | 6 | 46.9 |
| 2021 | MIA | 17 | 9 | 112 | 73 | 780 | 10.7 | 2 | 45.9 |
| 2022 | MIA | 17 | 1 | 52 | 32 | 362 | 11.3 | 5 | 21.3 |
| 2023 | NWE | 17 | 10 | 45 | 29 | 244 | 8.4 | 2 | 14.4 |
| 2024 | CIN | 17 | 3 | 83 | 65 | 665 | 10.2 | 2 | 39.1 |
| 2025 | CIN | 13 | 2 | 42 | 28 | 307 | 11 | 2 | 23.6 |
| Career | 128 | 46 | 540 | 353 | 3,833 | 10.9 | 24 | 29.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Penn State | Big Ten | 9 | 11 | 114 | 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 |
| 2015 | Penn State | Big Ten | 8 | 13 | 125 | 0 | 9.6 | 15.6 |
| 2016 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 47 | 668 | 4 | 14.2 | 51.4 |
| 2017 | Penn State | Big Ten | 12 | 53 | 510 | 9 | 9.6 | 42.5 |
| Career | 42 | 124 | 1,417 | 13 | 11.4 | 33.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
77%
ML model output
Context Prob
77%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
890 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.630
129" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.584
2.70 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.389
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+132 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.450
12.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.338
Speed × production: 77.7 — strong combined athletic output-0.316