Player breakdown
Nick O'Leary
Florida St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-3252 lbs6th round, 194th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | BUF | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 2017 | BUF | 15 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 322 | 14.6 | 2 | 21.5 |
| 2018 | MIA | 12 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 1 | 7.2 |
| 2019 | 2TM | 12 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 109 | 8.4 | 1 | 9.1 |
| 2019 | MIA | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 2019 | JAX | 5 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 72 | 8 | 1 | 14.4 |
| Career | 55 | 22 | 81 | 57 | 663 | 11.6 | 5 | 12.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Florida State | ACC | 1 | 12 | 164 | 1 | 13.7 | 164 |
| 2012 | Florida State | ACC | 4 | 21 | 252 | 3 | 12 | 63 |
| 2013 | Florida State | ACC | 4 | 33 | 557 | 7 | 16.9 | 139.2 |
| 2014 | Florida State | ACC | 11 | 45 | 539 | 4 | 12 | 49 |
| Career | 20 | 111 | 1,512 | 15 | 13.6 | 75.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
10%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
110" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.583
164.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.296
Speed × production: 47.5 — average combined athletic output+0.203
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+125 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.614
Class YPR rank: top 47% — average per-target efficiency-0.321
Reception rate trend-0.268