Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Nick Vannett
Nick Vannett

Player breakdown

Nick Vannett

Ohio St. · 2016 Draft Class

6-6257 lbs3rd round, 94th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

67%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2016SEA92433210.703.6
2017SEA154151212410.318.3
2018SEA15943292699.3317.9
20192TM16722171669.8010.4
2019SEA3154389.5012.7
2019PIT13617131289.809.8
2020DEN15112114956.816.3
2021NOR7215913314.8119
20222TM9396559.206.1
2022NOR3022136.504.3
2022NYG63744210.507
2023LAC85113300.4
2024TEN171020171357.937.9
Career136631811311,2339.499.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2012Ohio StateBig Ten09123013.70
2013Ohio StateBig Ten165819.758
2014Ohio StateBig Ten814187313.423.4
2015Ohio StateBig Ten91814808.216.4
Career1847516411.028.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

67%

ML model output

Context Prob

67%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

111" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.648
123.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.351
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.02 — variable output+0.264

Top Negative Factors

249 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.413
0.73 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.362
Class YPR rank: top 86% — average per-target efficiency-0.313

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)